Consumer spending and Corporate activity expected to come under focus ahead of Exchequer returns
The exchequer has experienced a broadly positive start to 2026 and this month’s returns will provide early indications on the outlook for the remainder of 2026. It is likely that the figures will be analysed from a quarterly perspective, forming a direct comparison with the take from Q1 2025. If the returns are higher, it is likely to bode positively for the rest of the year, despite continued global headwinds.
There is an expectation that the VAT take may be down year-on-year due continued cost-of-living pressures being experienced by consumers.
The ongoing situation in the Middle East resulted in rapidly increasing fuel prices throughout March. On one hand, we could see a decrease in consumer receipts as people row back on spending amidst the crisis. However, we expect the excise receipts to be up significantly as it is far too soon for any potential impact of last week’s government supports to emerge.
March is traditionally a quiet month for income and corporate receipts. The unemployment rate has stabilised in recent months and the end-of-year reporting season has passed for most major firms, so any differences should be marginal in these areas.
It remains our view that June will be the pivotal milestone in the 2026 fiscal calendar, as companies begin making preliminary corporation tax payments for 2026, offering a clearer signal as to whether last year’s strong business performance is being maintained in 2026. The first payments of the Pillar Two top up tax will also become payable that month. Ireland’s effective corporation tax rate for groups with turnover over €750M increased to 15% under the OECD global minimum tax framework, which may provide some additional uplift to receipts, all else being equal.
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